Observe the weather
Map regime, structure, and behavior before asking the market for an answer.
Context before signalHouse 03 / Capital
Private capital.
Public evidence.
Research, method, and accountable operation from the capital desk inside Rainwater.
Market / NQ + MNQ futuresState / Day-lagged shadowStandard / Evidence before scale
01Thesis
Rainwater Hedge
A desk built around what survives contact with data.
Rainwater Hedge is the markets research and capital desk inside Rainwater. It studies systems as operating disciplines, not stories that need to be defended.
Tide now leads the futures desk, but execution remains untouched. Every claim still has to survive cost, regime, random controls, and forward observation before the desk earns the right to scale it.
UniverseNQ / MNQOne system / two contract sizes
Archive08 papersFindings remain on file
Current postureForward shadowNo orders / no subscriber routing
02Method
The operating sequence
Edge is what remains after the attractive answer is gone.
Attack the idea
Test the attractive version, the boring version, and the random control against the same data.
Counterfactual requiredRefuse weak evidence
A strategy stays in research when costs, drawdowns, or forward behavior break the claim.
No scale by narrativePublish what survived
The useful result may be a system, a smaller claim, or a clear reason to stop.
Method on the record03Research
The public record
The claim gets narrower when the evidence does.
Paper 08 / Strategy12 min read
Latest dossier
Tide lives.
The claim got stricter.
Open the dossier08Tide lives. The claim got stricter.Strategy12 min07More trades was the wrong goal.Discipline14 min06Above the eight.Regime12 min05The day before tells you. But you already knew.Regime14 min04What we don't trade — and why.Discipline7 min
Enter the complete research archive04Operating notes
State of the desk
Research is allowed to say no.
Tide NQ
Runner activeCompleted sessions are scored day-lagged against one frozen strategy.
Broker execution
UnprovenThe observed record has no broker fills and makes no live-performance claim.
QQQ options
RetiredMonths of testing did not clear the economic gate.
Subscriber routing
OffNo live futures routing while the research posture is paper-only.
Follow the evidence
Stay close to the desk.
Join the research list for new papers, operating changes, and the first notice when a strategy clears its forward gate.